“We’re expecting another record-breaking holiday season this year and Thanksgiving weekend will play a major role.”

NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay

WASHINGTON, November 17, 2021 – Nearly 2 million more people than last year are expected to shop from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday this year even as consumers have continued the trend of starting their holiday shopping earlier in the year, according to the annual survey released today by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics.

“We’re expecting another record-breaking holiday season this year and Thanksgiving weekend will play a major role as it always has,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Nonetheless, consumers are starting earlier than ever to be sure they can get what they want, when they want it, at a price they want to pay. Black Friday stopped being a one-day event years ago, and this year some consumers started shopping for Christmas as early as Halloween. NRF is encouraging consumers to shop safe and shop early, but retailers are confident they have enough inventory on hand to meet holiday demand.”

Fully two-thirds (66 percent) of holiday shoppers surveyed in early November plan to shop Thanksgiving weekend this year. That amounts to an estimated 158.3 million people, up from 156.6 million last year but still below the 165.3 million in pre-pandemic 2019. The survey found 30.6 million plan to shop either in-store or online on Thanksgiving Day, 108 million on Black Friday, 58.1 million on Small Business Saturday, 31.2 million on Sunday and 62.8 million on Cyber Monday. (The total of the daily numbers exceeds the overall figure because some consumers will shop multiple days.)

Among those shopping on Thanksgiving Day, 65 percent are likely to do so in stores, up from 50 percent last year, when worries about COVID-19 were still keeping many people at home. On Black Friday, 64 percent are likely to shop in stores, up from 51 percent last year.

For those shopping during the weekend, deals that are “too good to pass up” remain the top reason, cited by 58 percent, but tradition continued to come in second at 28 percent.

While Thanksgiving weekend will be busy, 61 percent of those surveyed had already begun their holiday shopping, about the same as last year’s 59 percent but up from 51 percent a decade ago in 2011. The survey found 46 percent started earlier this year than they typically do. While the bulk of shopping may be yet to come, consumers had completed 28 percent of their holiday shopping by early November.

“Shopping early is a trend we’ve seen for years and it began long before the pandemic,” Prosper Executive Vice President of Strategy Phil Rist said. “While some consumers like the thrill of last-minute shopping and others just procrastinate, many prefer the comfort of having the shopping done early so they can relax and enjoy the season.”

The survey also addressed what consumers plan to buy. Clothing continued to top the list, expected to be given by 53 percent of shoppers, followed by gift cards at 46 percent, toys at 39 percent, books/music/movies/video games at 35 percent and food/candy at 31 percent as the top five categories.

Gift cards remain a perennial favorite for the flexibility afforded to recipients, with spending expected to total $28.1 billion, the highest since $29.9 billion in 2018. Shoppers plan to buy an average three or four cards this year with an average $48.92 per card, including restaurant cards (cited by 32 percent), department store cards (26 percent), bank-issued gift cards (also 26 percent) and coffee shop cards (20 percent).

For those buying for children, top toys for boys this year include 1) Lego, 2) cars and trucks, 3) Hot Wheels, 4) PlayStation, 5) video games, 6) Nerf, 7) Paw Patrol, 8) remote control car, 9) Xbox and 10) Pokémon. For girls, the top toys are 1) Barbie, 2) doll, 3) LOL dolls, 4) Lego, 5) Apple products/smartphone, 6) American Girl, baby dolls (tied), 7) apparel/accessories, Frozen (tied), 8) Disney/Disney princess, 9) beauty products and 10) Nintendo Switch.

The survey of 7,837 adult consumers was conducted November 1-10 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.1 percent.

NRF forecast last month that holiday sales during November and December will grow between 8.5 percent and 10.5 percent over 2020 to between $843.4 billion and $859 billion – setting records for both the growth rate and total amount spent. Consumers are expected to spend an average $997.73.

About NRF
The National Retail Federation, the world’s largest retail trade association, passionately advocates for the people, brands, policies and ideas that help retail thrive. From its headquarters in Washington, D.C., NRF empowers the industry that powers the economy. Retail is the nation’s largest private-sector employer, contributing $3.9 trillion to annual GDP and supporting one in four U.S. jobs – 52 million working Americans. For over a century, NRF has been a voice for every retailer and every retail job, educating, inspiring and communicating the powerful impact retail has on local communities and global economies.

About Prosper Insights & Analytics
Prosper Insights & Analytics is a global leader in consumer intent data serving the financial services, marketing technology, and retail industries. We provide global authoritative market information on U.S. and China consumers via curated insights and analytics. By integrating a variety of data including economic, behavioral and attitudinal data, Prosper helps companies accurately predict consumers’ future behavior to help identify market behaviors, optimize marketing efforts, and improve the effectiveness of demand generation campaigns. www.ProsperInsights.com